Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 82297.508996 86874.361941 91449.337319 96362.302258 101485.584198 106667.331820 112301.007725
2025-01-05 74847.211578 81862.240313 89070.368727 97020.199060 105531.627305 114360.581316 124200.730763
2025-01-12 69108.213113 77750.277928 86826.024106 97046.602882 108214.355742 120024.842409 133437.509549
2025-01-19 64520.899216 74344.987102 84853.257411 96894.725784 110275.472878 124652.190133 141230.222524
2025-01-26 62072.654706 72999.843883 84872.075050 98677.783092 114236.870636 131175.691454 150955.856550
2025-02-02 60019.730677 71894.565927 84978.305799 100393.017309 117983.440866 137356.639798 160230.013325
2025-02-09 57684.019691 70297.448132 84377.936362 101169.533026 120552.964315 142128.821557 167860.201079
2025-02-16 55064.065593 68221.118296 83092.981440 101033.778911 121969.931996 145507.650251 173843.671514
2025-02-23 53081.300431 66780.523154 82445.280909 101544.110718 124054.496003 149593.163915 180601.314483
2025-03-02 51032.388206 65160.948973 81497.581563 101619.094052 125560.947997 152959.095097 186494.249561
2025-03-09 49792.015044 64446.262088 81564.089268 102843.632100 128381.847009 157835.098589 194147.709417
2025-03-16 47722.687335 62638.723365 80245.658585 102341.325260 129092.149693 160188.502006 198808.670279
2025-03-23 46782.889351 62208.551062 80594.352271 103869.575737 132275.781626 165535.685810 207119.417721
2025-03-30 45590.086233 61419.208985 80469.951286 104797.692077 134726.381195 170020.229826 214438.370170
2025-04-06 44053.774823 60139.679741 79690.271510 104875.756661 136108.402848 173203.596507 220195.505660
2025-04-13 42502.359148 58783.942864 78764.257772 104724.953481 137171.116771 175975.778587 225446.223034
2025-04-20 42010.873362 58762.978510 79492.386409 106625.328049 140763.605908 181834.018886 234476.157738
2025-04-27 41520.268336 58717.636276 80170.598494 108451.281008 144263.335192 187592.955096 243418.875600
2025-05-04 40611.326245 58090.489900 80078.202418 109277.676733 146498.801079 191796.574706 250467.951243
2025-05-11 39324.110910 56921.752597 79252.050710 109133.253228 147484.723764 194439.116225 255587.634714
2025-05-18 38396.133416 56201.035077 78978.976509 109676.263639 149326.037812 198140.417019 262030.942412
2025-05-25 37318.960966 55245.577514 78369.074855 109756.046089 150556.331253 201067.842006 267512.354212
2025-06-01 36793.907192 55021.026044 78705.441209 111058.838752 153353.733953 205973.772927 275498.547323